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To watchEl Niño strengthens: possible effects until spring 2027
Published: 9 July 2026
What happened
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center indicates that El Niño conditions are present and that further strengthening is likely by the end of 2026.
Forecasts assign a high probability to the phenomenon persisting into early spring 2027. A strong El Niño changes probabilities, not certainties: it increases the risk of temperature and precipitation anomalies in various regions, without determining in advance what will happen in a specific place.
Why it matters
Natural variability and global warming can overlap. Understanding their interaction is essential for preparedness, prevention and adaptation.
What we know — and what we still don't
We know
- El Niño conditions are confirmed by official monitoring bulletins.
- El Niño tends to alter atmospheric circulation on a global scale.
To be verified / still uncertain
- The maximum intensity the phenomenon will reach.
- The concrete effects expected in each region and in individual months.
Sources
NOAA Climate Prediction CenterOfficial bulletin
9 July 2026